Futures of Iran’s Software Industry a Scenario Development Approach

Document Type: Research Paper


1 Associate Prof. in IT., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Prof., Interdisciplinary Department of Technology, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 Ph.D. Candidate, Futures Studies, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran


The software industry is a manifestation of soft skills as well as human abstract and intangible thinking based on human intelligence. However, the effects are understandable. Passing the hardware era and considering software technologies reveals the necessity of the capable human factor and software industry. Despite the efforts that have been made in this field in Iran, yet the technology is not a sustainable industry. Consequently, planning in this field requires a deep consideration and futurology. This article provided alternative futures of the industry for domestic producers and policy makers. The scope of the research was Iranian software sectors until 1404. This study was conducted by applying qualitative methods, such as: PEST analysis, Porter's Forces, content analysis, semi-structured interviews with experts of software industry and developing scenarios by GBN on critical uncertainties. Finally, four scenarios were presented by two main uncertainties, including 1. Government policy and executive advocacy of the software industry, 2. International engagement of it.


Main Subjects

Abe, H., Ashiki, T., Suzuki, A., Jinno, F. & Sakuma, H. (2009). Integrating business modeling and road mapping. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 76(1), 80–90.

Andries, P., Debackere, K. & Van Looy, B. (2006). Effective business model adaptation strategies for new technology-based ventures. In PREBEM Conference, Oct. 5, Amersfoort (The Netherlands).

Arabi, S.M. & Shoarian, P. (2005). Iran’s Software Industry Analysis. Journal of industrial Management Studies, 3(8), 29-54. (in Persian)

Babbie, E. (2013). The basics of social research. Boston, Massachusetts: Cengage Learning.

Bell, W. (2011). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: Values, Objectivity, and the Good Society. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.

Bishop, P., Hines, A. & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. foresight, 9(1), 5-25.

Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K. H., Ekvall, T. & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures, 38(7), 723-739.

Bouwman, H., De Vos, H. & Haaker, T. (2008). Mobile service innovation and business models. Berlin, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media.

Bradfield, R. & El-Sayed, H. (2009). Four scenarios for the future of the pharmaceutical industry. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 21(2), 195-212.

Chermack, T., Lynham, S. & Ruona, W. (2002). A review of scenario planning literature. Futures Research Quarterly, 17(2), 7-31.

Chesbrough, H. (2010). Business model innovation: opportunities and barriers. Long range planning, 43(2), 354-363.

Danaeifard, H., Alvani, S. M. & Azar, A. (2009). Qualitative Research Methodology in Management: Comprehensive Approach (third edition), Tehran: Safa Publisher. (in Persian)

Danaeifard, H., Mozafari, Z. (2008). Enhancement of Reliability and Validity of Qualitative Research , Management Researches, 1(1), 131-162.

Duncan, R. B. (1972). Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environmental uncertainty. Administrative science quarterly, 17(3), 313-327.

Elahi, Sh. (2007). Citrus Garden for Criteria and success factors Recognition of Iran’s Software Industry. Science and Technology Policy, 1(2), 1-15.
(in Persian)

Faaliat, V., Hosseinzadeh, M. & Omidi, M. (2011). Various Prioritizing of Iran’s Software Companies’ Export. Economic Policy Making, 3(6), 145-184.
(in Persian)

Frishammar, J. (2005). Managing information in new product development: A literature review. International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, 2(3), 259-275.

Gabzdylova, B., Raffensperger, J. F. & Castka, P. (2009). Sustainability in the New Zealand wine industry: drivers, stakeholders and practices. Journal of Cleaner Production, 17(11), 992-998.

Gnatzy, T. & Moser, R. (2012). Scenario development for an evolving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business model innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(4), 688-699.

Golafshani, N. (2006). Reliability and Validity in Qualitative Research. Tomorrow Management. 1(14)و 33-42. (in Persian)

Gorjizadeh, A. & Sharifi Ranani, H. (2014). The Role of Knowledge based Economy in Controlling Inflation. Economic Modelling, 8(26), 107-125.
(in Persian)

Håkansson, H. & Snehota, I. (1989). No business is an island: the network concept of business strategy. Scandinavian journal of management, 5(3), 187-200.

Hartman, S., Lundberg, O., White, M. & Barnett, T. (1995). Information processing techniques in planning: An investigation of preferences of executive planners. Journal of Business Research, 33(1), 13-24.

Hedman, J. & Kalling, T. (2003). The business model concept: theoretical underpinnings and empirical illustrations. European Journal of Information Systems, 12(1), 49-59.

Hoskisson, R. E., Eden, L., Lau, C. M. & Wright, M. (2000). Strategy in emerging economies. Academy of management journal, 43(3), 249-267.

Hsieh, H. F. & Shannon, S. E. (2005). Three approaches to qualitative content analysis. Qualitative health research, 15(9), 1277-1288.

Imani, M.T. & Noshadi, M.R. (2015). Qualitative Content Analysis. Research Cutie in Human Science, 3(2), 15-44.

Islamic Parliament Research Center. (2010). Iran Software Industry Pathology. Tehran. (in Persian)

Kaplan, R. & Norton, D. (2004). Strategy Based Organization. Translator Bakhtiari, P., Tehran: IMI. (in Persian)

Long, T. & Johnson, M. (2000). Rigour, reliability and validity in qualitative research. Clinical effectiveness in nursing, 4(1), 30-37.

Mayring, P. (2007). On generalization in qualitatively oriented research. In Forum Qualitative Sozialforschung /Forum: Qualitative Social Research, 8(3),  Art. 26, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0703262.

Meyer, K.E., Estrin, S., Bhaumik, S.K. & Peng, M.W. (2009). Institutions, resources, and entry strategies in emerging economies. Strategic management journal, 30(1), 61-80.

Osterwalder, A. (2004). The business model ontology: A proposition in a design science approach. Unpublished dissertation, University of laussane.

Pagani, M. (2009). Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(3), 382-395.

Persian Academi. (2010). Futures studies words. http://irpublicpolicy.ir (in Persian)

Porter, M. E. (2008). The five competitive forces that shape strategy. Harvard business review, 86(1), 25-40.

Rajala, R., Rossi, M. & Tuunainen, V. K. (2003). A framework for analyzing software business models. In ECIS: 11th European Conference on Information Systems, ECIS 2003, Naples, Italy, PP. 1614-1627.

Ringland, G., & Schwartz, P. P. (1998). Scenario planning: managing for the future. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.

Saritas, O. & Aylen, J. (2010). Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(7), 1061-1075.

Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. USA: Broadway Business.

Tavakoli Moghadam, R. & Sobhani, R. (2002). Different Market Methods for Scanning Target Market in Strategic Management: Software Industry Case Study. Management and Development. 1(13), 68-85. (in Persian)

Van der Heijden, K. (2011). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.

Wright, M., Filatotchev, I., Hoskisson, R. E. & Peng, M. W. (2005). Strategy research in emerging economies: Challenging the conventional wisdom. Journal of management studies, 42(1), 1-33.

Zou, P. X., Zhang, G. & Wang, J. (2007). Understanding the key risks in construction projects in China. International Journal of Project Management, 25(6), 601-614.