Futures of Iran’s Software Industry a Scenario Development Approach

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Prof. in IT., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Prof., Interdisciplinary Department of Technology, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 Ph.D. Candidate, Futures Studies, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The software industry is a manifestation of soft skills as well as human abstract and intangible thinking based on human intelligence. However, the effects are understandable. Passing the hardware era and considering software technologies reveals the necessity of the capable human factor and software industry. Despite the efforts that have been made in this field in Iran, yet the technology is not a sustainable industry. Consequently, planning in this field requires a deep consideration and futurology. This article provided alternative futures of the industry for domestic producers and policy makers. The scope of the research was Iranian software sectors until 1404. This study was conducted by applying qualitative methods, such as: PEST analysis, Porter's Forces, content analysis, semi-structured interviews with experts of software industry and developing scenarios by GBN on critical uncertainties. Finally, four scenarios were presented by two main uncertainties, including 1. Government policy and executive advocacy of the software industry, 2. International engagement of it.
 

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